David Bernstein
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Posted 01/07/2007 00:36:32


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Paddington Blue (01/07/2007)
is he though? there must be somebody else out there. if it means a warnock or a coleman for a year then why not take that and keep our club ours. if we do that then its still in our hands. it'll still be a plc. no matter if the allegations against frank are true or not, this controversy isnt going to go away whilst he is there. if we keep him under the 75% we still have our club, as you say somebody will bale us out, we shouldn't be as weak as we are in this market. a club with a fanbase as big as ours will have a lot of emotional shares for birthdays or christmases or whatever, we still have a chance to say no and wait. all it means is we dont get sven. we look for a new owner and we struggle. we're taking the easy way out here, and in doing so we're losing our club.

See i agree 100% with that as well. But it will still be our club. Because we are the one constant. We'll still be here way after Thaksin. Way after Sven has made his £9m from us.

No one can ever take City away from us in the sense that they are the club we love, the club we all support no matter who is leading them. But as i don't have shares to sell i'm powerless anyway


From Manchester with love

Post #73703
Posted 01/07/2007 00:40:35


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Paddington Blue (01/07/2007)
is he though? there must be somebody else out there. if it means a warnock or a coleman for a year then why not take that and keep our club ours. if we do that then its still in our hands. it'll still be a plc. no matter if the allegations against frank are true or not, this controversy isnt going to go away whilst he is there. if we keep him under the 75% we still have our club, as you say somebody will bale us out, we shouldn't be as weak as we are in this market. a club with a fanbase as big as ours will have a lot of emotional shares for birthdays or christmases or whatever, we still have a chance to say no and wait. all it means is we dont get sven. we look for a new owner and we struggle. we're taking the easy way out here, and in doing so we're losing our club.

I've said before that I thought it might have been for the best just for us to carry on as we were, slowly getting back to parity and building a squad. Especially when I would much rather have Pearce than Warnock or Coleman.

It doesn't seem like there's a lot left we can do now though. I hope the club doesn't sell it's soul, like the scum have.



It's practically Christmas today!
Post #73705
Posted 01/07/2007 00:44:34


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Can a club sell it's soul though? Where does the soul of a club lie? No takeover can take our soul.

The soul of a club doesn't lie in the boardroom. It's in every City fan. It's in the stands on match day. Thaksin can do what he wants, but the club will have it's soul because the fans are the very essence of the club. And no one can take our club from us.

I hope.


From Manchester with love

Post #73709
Posted 01/07/2007 00:53:50


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Squidge (01/07/2007)
Can a club sell it's soul though? Where does the soul of a club lie? No takeover can take our soul.

The soul of a club doesn't lie in the boardroom. It's in every City fan. It's in the stands on match day. Thaksin can do what he wants, but the club will have it's soul because the fans are the very essence of the club. And no one can take our club from us.

I hope.

Yeah i agree 100%, everyone is getting very melodramatic about this takeover.  The club will not be selling its soul at all.  No one at Chelsea winges about Roman, i think city fans just like to complain :o)

Post #73718
Posted 01/07/2007 16:49:19


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I would guess this is the gist of what changed Benny's and Paddy's minds:

At the time of writing Shinawatra has 8% of shares left to purchase to have the potential to gain a 75% stakeholding. With this comes the ability to change the memorandum and articles of association of the club in order to borrow further monies against the club, as well as de-list us from the PLUS market. Otherwise, why the wait? Why not purchase what you have agreed and then buy up the rest in due course in order for us to make up lost time?

I am wholly against this man taking over our club and we as supporters and small shareholders should do all we can to stop him getting to this point. That would severely test his ability to actually put money into the club. Being able to buy 75% at 40p represents a cheap sell off to me, as we have done with many of our commercial deals in the last five years - Anelka, SWP, James, Cole, kit sponsorships, kit manufacture deals etc. It's not good enough.

My concern is we have been panicked into accepting a proposal from anyone who can deliver a manager to us in time for pre-season. Given that, why did we let Pearce go? At the very least we should have had a replacement properly lined up. By having owners wanting to sell and no manager, we have been placed in an unenviable and entirely avoidable situation by changing two key variables at the same time. Now we have a split support, some willing to accept a man of no City credentials, in order to bring stability.

Notwithstanding his lack of City credentials, he has tried and failed to buy Fulham and Liverpool before us. Talk about sloppy seconds? His dubious human rights record does not ingratiate him to me either. Irrespective of his political and social background, he owns a United shirt with his name on presented to him by Ferguson. How low do we want to go?

As to the £130 million 'purchase' of City. From what I have read from the recommended cash offer, and it's as much information as any fan has at this stage, he is purchasing the club for much less:

If he gains the 75% he is looking for, it will cost him £16,226,812.

He has agreed to buy Wardle and Makin's debt for £17.5 million, a loss to them of around £5.5 million over five years, based on £21 million of loans at 5% interest.

Total cost to Shinawatra of £33,726,812. Not the £81 million headline figure the club is valued at.

In my opinion, he will take over the existing debt and then add more debt based on our existing assets to fund purchases. Something I think we could have done ourselves two years ago when we needed two more players to be a good team. Having now sold four of our best players in Anelka, SWP, Distin and Barton, we are at least six short and have had to put up with miserly football to boot. I do not understand why Wardle and Mackintosh did not just borrow more themselves to kick us on into at least the top five. A false economy of at least 20 places and European revenue lost over two seasons.

Shinawatra may well underwrite the debt with the money he has manoeuvered away from the reaches of the people who are freezing his other assets to secure the borrowing, but it will be just that, borrowing. Any one of us, could, in principle do this. The backing to secure the borrowing is all we are missing. Further, bringing his son, daughter and AN Other to the board smacks of nepotism, when what we needed was a professionally skilled board. i.e. executive directors with appropriate professional backgrounds to lead: a Sales and Marketing Director; an Operations Director; a Director of Football; a Commercial Director. All these still missing from our non- executive shareholder based board.

When Wardle refused to deal with Ranson I can only assume from what I have read that it was the leveraged proposal that put Wardle off. That and maybe his and Mackintosh's demise. It is clear both of them want to stay on. JW belying his 'reluctant chairman' tab. However, when funds are being frozen left, right and centre Shinawatra will not want to tie up his own money. So the proposal will be heavily leveraged whichever way you look. Would you pay if you could get someone else to pay? You know who that is going to be.

This purchase is a total win-win for Shinawatra. If he pays debt off his share price goes up. If he loads the club with further debt, it's not his money. The £81 million value of debt and equity, whichever way it is made up, is gained for £33 million - see Modigliani-Miller theorem for the irrelevance of the make of debt and equity in the club's make-up. Hence the reason to knock Ranson back must run much deeper than leveraging.

Further, why are we even dealing with someone who is having assets frozen? The association is not good for City and does not fit with our community/family based club image. Shinawatra has no affiliation to us and is using our club for his own ends. The press speculation about breaking our hard fought wage structure and transfer dealings will put the long term future of the club in doubt. We will have to pay in the long run. Remember the pain of the Keegan spend we and Pearce have had to tighten our belts and put up with trying to make a silk purse out of a sow's ear for. Remember the pain of the boom and bust of Swales? Why have we not learned? We do need to take risk as a club? The risk we are taking now will be borne by us as a cost to the club and not this fly by night pedigree-less character.

This was an opportunity for City to be purchased in the name of the supporters. The TV money coming in would allow the club to repay this purchase price and a transfer kitty of £30 million in six years. The Barcelona model.

To own City I believe you need to adhere to its values. I have made up the values I believe have entailed making us City in the past:

Honesty: On this count Shinawatra's credibility has to be questioned. As does Eriksson in his personal dealings.

Loyalty: None for either.

Pride: Not in our club.

Passion: For the game of football, but not for City.

Flair: I have yet to see it from either. Although I am no expert on Sven's pre-England performance.

Owning and managing City is more than just being able to borrow the cash. It is about values. Something I had given Mackintosh and Wardle the benefit of the doubt on for many reasons. Including: the work with the community, environmental strides, links with minority groups and the work they appear to have put in themselves - despite some terrible deals, a further example being, First Advice remaining on our shirts despite going bump the previous season. However, this deal has tipped me against both of them. The values I have considered as core to City do not fit with the persona I understand to be Shinawatra. As for Eriksson I believe he will have to do, but would not have been on my shortlist - as an aside, I too feel for Heidi in the deluge of abuse she has taken for no other reason than gauging the evidence on this very site. Others may have been different, but her straw poll was, in my opinion, correctly qualified but abused by the press and vilified by so called supporters.

The values that have made us City in the past appear to be being thrown out of the window in an effort to take cash at all costs. It is not what we were about.

Whatever you do, stay Blue!



It's practically Christmas today!
Post #73807
Posted 01/07/2007 16:52:17


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*sigh* That's some heavy stuff, isn't it....?



It's practically Christmas today!
Post #73808
Posted 01/07/2007 16:57:57


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Then this is a sort of counter argument:

For me it doesn't matter what price the club is sold for - it could be 1p - because that has no effect on the club itself, it just puts money in the pockets of the shareholders. Same about the repayment of the Wardle & Makin loans - if they are prepared to lose some of that money, that is their choice. Don't feel too sad for them, though, what with all the money they are getting for their shares.

I think you are right to highlight the possibility that Shinawatra could load the club with debt - it is one of many things that most City fans are pushing their fnigers in their ears and saying "la la la" about. But it is only a "could".

Shinawatra's human rights record and possible illegal business activities are very hard to judge as none of us has access to the impartial facts of the situiation. I do have concerns about him, but they are more to do with the way the Thai authorities want to "get" him and I am worried about how that might play out over time and how it could end up harming us. Again, though, only "could".

What matters to me is the club, who manages it, who we buy in the transfer window, how well we do over the next few seasons. This is where my big worries start to arise. All the rest of this is "in my opinion".

It is a sign of how desperate Wardle and Makin are to get their money out that they have taken a hit on their loans. I am very grateful to them for keeping the club afloat but, beyond that, I feel it is time they handed the reins over to someone more capable at running a football club. However, Wardle will be staying and Shinawatra has never run a football club.

The timing is terrible - although it looks likely that Sven will be in charge (and so he will be spending the time now getting briefed on "who's who" at City), we don't know for sure. We need certainty about our manager very, very soon.

We need a much clearer picture of what is happening with the ownership of the club to attract the best players available.

We need a five year "vision" communicated to the players and the fans of how the club intend to move from being unstable and inconsistent towards being a club always challenging for Europe.

Finally, I am really concerned about the ongoing press reports that our anti money laundering authorities are in talks with the Thai authorities, that Shinawatra is facing an arrest warrant and a possible extradition request, that his children have been landed with a huge tax bill relating to deals done in their names and so on.

As he hasn't yet paid for the shares promised to him (and even the Sky shares etc may not have been paid for yet as he is working through dealers and no doubt has a substantial credit line with them), I continue to be concerned that the deal will fall through. I wonder how long it might be before he has to put up some real money and whether that money is available.

Whatever happens, imo it is still City. We should still support the club we love. But we should keep close watch on what is happening behind the scenes. Sadly, when Shinawatra de-lists the company the amount of public information about it might shrink considerably and we may not be able to spot how things get financed etc.

And also this:

Anyhow on balance I support the takeover because:
1) Thaksin is being stitched up by Thai junta and I dont like a set-up
2) Money has been checked out as legal by reputable advisers
3) His vision given in interview was spot on
4) City will be relegated without further investment and, with our debt levels, there would be real prospect of insolvency
5) With Thaksin, City has potential to be a great club again



It's practically Christmas today!
Post #73809
Posted 01/07/2007 18:08:11
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Squidge talks about the soul of the club. 

The soul of the club ? As long as it's got it's supporters,   City will always have a soul

Just been in the bath for two hours plus,   crashed out with A couple of tins of cider,  some chocolate and Mike Doyle's book,   Blue Moon.    Cider gone,   chocolate gone,   water almost cold,   book three quarters read,  and I'd have read it to the end ( cold water or not, ) if the wife and kids hadn't have hastled me out...

Managers and players will come and go,   and those that earn our respect will be remembered.

Don't worry about the soul of the club,   It's alive and well

GOLDWING

Post #73813
Posted 01/07/2007 18:09:29
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must have hyperthermia !   The books called Blue Blood !

GOLDWING
Post #73814
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